docs: README and About copy for the tuned additive model
The idea table now shows 83/69/18 (the soft-program default) with a 'who you teach matters more than how many' framing; the model section describes the forwarding composite (baseline, raised by novelty, lowered by harm awareness) and the soft education lever instead of the old fixed-rate / never-forward wording. Background acknowledges the team's literature sourcing of the parameters and frames this demo as the accessible layer of the funded instrument (calibration, full parameters, optimisation). Preset About copy updated to match.
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README.md
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README.md
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@ -25,25 +25,33 @@ education strategies, so the only thing that changes is who gets educated.
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With the default world (120 students, educate 30% of them):
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| Strategy | Reached by the fake |
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| -------------------------- | ------------------- |
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| No program | 82% |
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| Educate 30% at random | 58% |
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| Educate the 30% best-connected | 6% |
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| ------------------------------ | ------------------- |
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| No program | 83% |
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| Educate 30% at random | 69% |
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| Educate the 30% best-connected | 18% |
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Same budget, different targeting, an order-of-magnitude difference. Making
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that lever visible (and later: searching for the best intervention under a
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budget) is the point of the tool.
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Same budget, very different outcomes: educating at random barely dents the
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spread, while educating the best-connected students contains it to under a
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fifth of the school. Who you teach matters more than how many. Making that
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lever visible (and later: searching for the best intervention under a budget)
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is the point of the tool.
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## How the model works
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- **Network**: Holme-Kim preferential attachment with triangle closure
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(Holme & Kim, 2002), producing the hubs and clustered friend groups of
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real social networks; a port of networkx's `powerlaw_cluster_graph`.
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- **Spread**: an independent cascade (Kempe, Kleinberg & Tardos, 2003);
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each directed edge gets one random forwarding draw, shared across all
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scenarios, so strategies are compared in the same world.
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- **Education lever**: an educated student still receives the fake but
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never forwards it. Strategies: no program, uniform random, most-connected.
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- **Spread**: an independent cascade (Kempe, Kleinberg & Tardos, 2003). Each
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student's chance of forwarding is a literature-grounded composite: a baseline
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rate, raised by how novel or shocking the fake is, lowered by the year
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group's ambient harm awareness. Per-edge random draws are shared across all
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scenarios, so strategies are compared in the same world. Because
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deepfake-specific data are scarce, the parameters are sensitivity ranges
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rather than fitted values, drawn from the project team's literature review.
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- **Education lever**: the program cuts an educated student's forwarding
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probability by its effect size (a strong but imperfect reduction, not a
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perfect wall). Strategies pick who is educated: no program, uniform random,
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or the most-connected students.
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- **Determinism**: every source of randomness flows from seeds in the
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config; identical configs produce identical results, pinned by tests.
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@ -138,6 +146,16 @@ Python prototype used in that project's pitch. The subject is handled from
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the prevention side only: the tool models how harmful content spreads and
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what education changes, nothing about creating such content.
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The model's diffusion and education parameters were sourced by the project
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team from open-access literature on misinformation spread, complex contagion,
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peer aggression, and comprehensive sexuality education.
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This public demo is the accessible, intuition-building layer of the proposed
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research. The funded project would build the full instrument behind it:
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calibrating the model to real-school data, incorporating the complete
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literature parameter set, and searching for the best intervention under a
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budget.
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References: P. Holme & B. J. Kim, *Growing scale-free networks with tunable
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clustering* (Phys. Rev. E 65, 2002). D. Kempe, J. Kleinberg & E. Tardos,
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*Maximizing the spread of influence through a social network* (KDD 2003).
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@ -13,12 +13,13 @@ export const deepfakeSchoolPreset: StudyPreset = {
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disclaimerShort: 'Illustrative model, not validated',
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disclaimerLong:
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'spreadlab runs a seeded agent-based toy simulation: a synthetic ' +
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'friendship network of one school year group, a fixed chance to forward ' +
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'the fake along each friendship per round, and an education program that ' +
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'teaches some students to refuse. Its parameters are chosen for ' +
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'illustration, not fitted to data, so it is not a validated prediction ' +
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'of any real school. Use it to build intuition about who to educate, ' +
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'not to forecast outcomes.',
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'friendship network of one school year group, a chance to forward the ' +
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'fake along each friendship that rises with how novel it is and falls ' +
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'with the ambient harm awareness, and an education program that strongly ' +
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'but imperfectly reduces forwarding for educated students. Its parameters ' +
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'are illustrative sensitivity ranges, not fitted to data, so it is not a ' +
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'validated prediction of any real school. Use it to build intuition about ' +
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'who to educate, not to forecast outcomes.',
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readingCaption:
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'Each dot is one student in the same simulated year group. Every scenario ' +
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'runs the identical school; only the education program differs.',
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