diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 50e0c1c..b2bd1fc 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -24,26 +24,34 @@ the *same* outbreak in the *same* simulated social network under different education strategies, so the only thing that changes is who gets educated. With the default world (120 students, educate 30% of them): -| Strategy | Reached by the fake | -| -------------------------- | ------------------- | -| No program | 82% | -| Educate 30% at random | 58% | -| Educate the 30% best-connected | 6% | +| Strategy | Reached by the fake | +| ------------------------------ | ------------------- | +| No program | 83% | +| Educate 30% at random | 69% | +| Educate the 30% best-connected | 18% | -Same budget, different targeting, an order-of-magnitude difference. Making -that lever visible (and later: searching for the best intervention under a -budget) is the point of the tool. +Same budget, very different outcomes: educating at random barely dents the +spread, while educating the best-connected students contains it to under a +fifth of the school. Who you teach matters more than how many. Making that +lever visible (and later: searching for the best intervention under a budget) +is the point of the tool. ## How the model works - **Network**: Holme-Kim preferential attachment with triangle closure (Holme & Kim, 2002), producing the hubs and clustered friend groups of real social networks; a port of networkx's `powerlaw_cluster_graph`. -- **Spread**: an independent cascade (Kempe, Kleinberg & Tardos, 2003); - each directed edge gets one random forwarding draw, shared across all - scenarios, so strategies are compared in the same world. -- **Education lever**: an educated student still receives the fake but - never forwards it. Strategies: no program, uniform random, most-connected. +- **Spread**: an independent cascade (Kempe, Kleinberg & Tardos, 2003). Each + student's chance of forwarding is a literature-grounded composite: a baseline + rate, raised by how novel or shocking the fake is, lowered by the year + group's ambient harm awareness. Per-edge random draws are shared across all + scenarios, so strategies are compared in the same world. Because + deepfake-specific data are scarce, the parameters are sensitivity ranges + rather than fitted values, drawn from the project team's literature review. +- **Education lever**: the program cuts an educated student's forwarding + probability by its effect size (a strong but imperfect reduction, not a + perfect wall). Strategies pick who is educated: no program, uniform random, + or the most-connected students. - **Determinism**: every source of randomness flows from seeds in the config; identical configs produce identical results, pinned by tests. @@ -138,6 +146,16 @@ Python prototype used in that project's pitch. The subject is handled from the prevention side only: the tool models how harmful content spreads and what education changes, nothing about creating such content. +The model's diffusion and education parameters were sourced by the project +team from open-access literature on misinformation spread, complex contagion, +peer aggression, and comprehensive sexuality education. + +This public demo is the accessible, intuition-building layer of the proposed +research. The funded project would build the full instrument behind it: +calibrating the model to real-school data, incorporating the complete +literature parameter set, and searching for the best intervention under a +budget. + References: P. Holme & B. J. Kim, *Growing scale-free networks with tunable clustering* (Phys. Rev. E 65, 2002). D. Kempe, J. Kleinberg & E. Tardos, *Maximizing the spread of influence through a social network* (KDD 2003). diff --git a/web/src/presets/deepfake-school.ts b/web/src/presets/deepfake-school.ts index 89fddb8..0628e86 100644 --- a/web/src/presets/deepfake-school.ts +++ b/web/src/presets/deepfake-school.ts @@ -13,12 +13,13 @@ export const deepfakeSchoolPreset: StudyPreset = { disclaimerShort: 'Illustrative model, not validated', disclaimerLong: 'spreadlab runs a seeded agent-based toy simulation: a synthetic ' + - 'friendship network of one school year group, a fixed chance to forward ' + - 'the fake along each friendship per round, and an education program that ' + - 'teaches some students to refuse. Its parameters are chosen for ' + - 'illustration, not fitted to data, so it is not a validated prediction ' + - 'of any real school. Use it to build intuition about who to educate, ' + - 'not to forecast outcomes.', + 'friendship network of one school year group, a chance to forward the ' + + 'fake along each friendship that rises with how novel it is and falls ' + + 'with the ambient harm awareness, and an education program that strongly ' + + 'but imperfectly reduces forwarding for educated students. Its parameters ' + + 'are illustrative sensitivity ranges, not fitted to data, so it is not a ' + + 'validated prediction of any real school. Use it to build intuition about ' + + 'who to educate, not to forecast outcomes.', readingCaption: 'Each dot is one student in the same simulated year group. Every scenario ' + 'runs the identical school; only the education program differs.',