drop the low/medium/high sensitivity-range framing: parameters are illustrative values, the robust claim is the ordering
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3 changed files with 8 additions and 8 deletions
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@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ is the point of the tool.
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rate, raised by how novel or shocking the fake is, lowered by the year
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rate, raised by how novel or shocking the fake is, lowered by the year
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group's ambient harm awareness. Per-edge random draws are shared across all
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group's ambient harm awareness. Per-edge random draws are shared across all
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scenarios, so strategies are compared in the same world. Because
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scenarios, so strategies are compared in the same world. Because
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deepfake-specific data are scarce, the parameters are sensitivity ranges
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deepfake-specific data are scarce, the parameters are illustrative values
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rather than fitted values, drawn from the project team's literature review.
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rather than fitted values, drawn from the project team's literature review.
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- **Education lever**: the program cuts an educated student's forwarding
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- **Education lever**: the program cuts an educated student's forwarding
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probability by its effect size (a strong but imperfect reduction, not a
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probability by its effect size (a strong but imperfect reduction, not a
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@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ const parameterSources: ParameterSource[] = [
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{
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{
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name: 'Baseline forwarding',
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name: 'Baseline forwarding',
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status: 'live',
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status: 'live',
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role: 'Each student’s base chance of forwarding the fake along a friendship after seeing it. Treated as a low / medium / high sensitivity range, not a fitted fact, because deepfake-specific adolescent diffusion data are scarce.',
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role: 'Each student’s base chance of forwarding the fake along a friendship after seeing it. Treated as an illustrative, uncertain value, not a fitted fact, because deepfake-specific adolescent diffusion data are scarce.',
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sources: [
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sources: [
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'Kim et al. (2023), comprehensive sexuality education meta-analysis',
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'Kim et al. (2023), comprehensive sexuality education meta-analysis',
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'Brigham et al. (2024), perceptions of AI-generated non-consensual imagery',
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'Brigham et al. (2024), perceptions of AI-generated non-consensual imagery',
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@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ const parameterSources: ParameterSource[] = [
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{
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{
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name: 'Program effect (the education lever)',
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name: 'Program effect (the education lever)',
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status: 'live',
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status: 'live',
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role: 'Applies education as a strong but imperfect reduction in an educated student’s forwarding probability. Explored as a sensitivity range, because intervention effect sizes vary and no deepfake-specific causal estimate exists.',
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role: 'Applies education as a strong but imperfect reduction in an educated student’s forwarding probability. Treated as illustrative and uncertain, because intervention effect sizes vary and no deepfake-specific causal estimate exists.',
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sources: [
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sources: [
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'Kim et al. (2023), comprehensive sexuality education meta-analysis',
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'Kim et al. (2023), comprehensive sexuality education meta-analysis',
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'Kamaruddin et al. (2023), cyberbullying intervention meta-analysis',
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'Kamaruddin et al. (2023), cyberbullying intervention meta-analysis',
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@ -214,7 +214,7 @@ const references: Reference[] = [
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</p>
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</p>
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<p class="disclaimer" role="note">
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<p class="disclaimer" role="note">
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<strong>Illustrative, not validated.</strong> spreadlab is a planning and discussion aid,
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<strong>Illustrative, not validated.</strong> spreadlab is a planning and discussion aid,
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not a prediction. Its parameters are explored as sensitivity ranges drawn from adjacent
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not a prediction. Its parameters are illustrative values drawn from adjacent
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literatures, not fitted to real-school data, so its numbers must not be read as forecasts
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literatures, not fitted to real-school data, so its numbers must not be read as forecasts
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about any real school, platform, or incident.
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about any real school, platform, or incident.
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</p>
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</p>
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@ -323,12 +323,12 @@ const references: Reference[] = [
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="block">
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<div class="block">
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<h3>Details: parameters as sensitivity ranges, not fitted values</h3>
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<h3>Details: parameters are illustrative, not fitted values</h3>
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<p>
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<p>
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Because direct empirical data on adolescent sexualized deepfake diffusion are still
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Because direct empirical data on adolescent sexualized deepfake diffusion are still
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scarce, the model does not bake in point estimates. The curated levers (baseline
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scarce, the model does not bake in point estimates. The curated levers (baseline
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forwarding, novelty, harm awareness, program effect) are explored as low / medium / high
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forwarding, novelty, harm awareness, program effect) are illustrative values you can vary,
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ranges drawn from adjacent open-access literatures on misinformation spread, complex
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drawn from adjacent open-access literatures on misinformation spread, complex
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contagion, peer aggression, cyberbullying interventions, and comprehensive sexuality
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contagion, peer aggression, cyberbullying interventions, and comprehensive sexuality
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education. The remaining literature parameters are documented and reserved for the
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education. The remaining literature parameters are documented and reserved for the
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calibrated instrument the grant would fund. The list below maps each parameter to its
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calibrated instrument the grant would fund. The list below maps each parameter to its
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@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ export const deepfakeSchoolPreset: StudyPreset = {
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'fake along each friendship that rises with how novel it is and falls ' +
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'fake along each friendship that rises with how novel it is and falls ' +
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'with the ambient harm awareness, and an education program that strongly ' +
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'with the ambient harm awareness, and an education program that strongly ' +
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'but imperfectly reduces forwarding for educated students. Its parameters ' +
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'but imperfectly reduces forwarding for educated students. Its parameters ' +
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'are illustrative sensitivity ranges, not fitted to data, so it is not a ' +
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'are illustrative values, not fitted to data, so it is not a ' +
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'validated prediction of any real school. Use it to build intuition about ' +
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'validated prediction of any real school. Use it to build intuition about ' +
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'who to educate, not to forecast outcomes.',
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'who to educate, not to forecast outcomes.',
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readingCaption:
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readingCaption:
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